With a summer of mounting power
crisis, the rush to form the next government in Delhi is in news again. AAP and
BJP both are reported to be engaged in efforts.
AAP negotiating with Congress and
BJP working on ‘rebel AAP MLAs’ options – though such reports and claims have
been dismissed by BJP, AAP and Congress – the developments are expected to give
Delhi the next ‘elected’ government.
With 3 BJP members of the Delhi
legislative assembly becoming the members of the parliament, the sitting MLA
strength of the House is now 67. It means, to form the government, a simple
majority of 34 MLAs is needed now.
The AAP prospects: Given the count of 27, AAP, too, like BJP’s 29
MLAs, has the chances. The only catch is, AAP does not have the luxury of
putting efforts for more than ‘one easily available options’.
AAP needs 7 MLAs and even in that
case it would be just a razor-thin simple majority.
AAP can look for Congress, the
lone independent MLA and the lone JD(U) MLA. They all make for a combined
strength of 37 (27+8+1+1).
If this happens, then AAP can
expect to manage well for the remaining tenure, provided it meets the
‘criteria’.
And what can be the elements of
the ‘criteria’? AAP will have to accommodate each and every demand of the
‘supporting’ MLAs. Here, the problem would not be with the Congress party as it
will support from outside. But the 2 other MLAs would extract a heavy price.
But the big question before the
stage to ‘meet the elements of the criteria laid’ arrives is whether the
Congress party will come forward to support AAP.
There are reports talking of
meetings and possible ‘deal’ between AAP and Congress with each vehemently
denied by both. But even Congress needs time to prepare for the lost ground in
Delhi before it goes to the polls. After the historically low tally in the recently
held Lok Sabha elections, there are real chances that an election held now may
worsen its situation even further that will further weaken its revival
prospects.
So, even if Congress supporting
AAP to form the government again after the failed previous experiment may look
like a remote possibility as of now, we should not be surprised if some last
minute deal could be worked out.
In the present circumstances,
Congress has not much to lose politically. Any performing government in Delhi
would work anti to its prospects but a performing BJP government would be much
more harmful.
In fact, a performing AAP
government, running with the ‘crucial and guided’ support of Congress would be
the logical option for the Delhi politics of the grand old party of India.
The party will have to bear the
opportunity cost of giving AAP another chance to prove its ‘worthiness’ in
order to gain time to act further, to act better.
That is the only chance the Aam
Aadmi Party has to form the government in Delhi.